Welcome to Forkast Forecasts 2021. On this sequence, leaders, innovators and visionaries in blockchain-related fields inform Forkast.Information what they see as essentially the most noteworthy developments for this trade in 2020 and their predictions for the 12 months forward.
Jun Li is the founding father of Ontology, an open-source blockchain specializing in digital identity and data. He’s additionally co-founder and chief architect of blockchain options at Onchain, a blockchain expertise firm based mostly in China.
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Li beforehand held roles offering technical structure, administration and planning help on the worldwide IT agency Infosys in addition to the China Monetary Futures Trade.
Largest developments in 2020
- China’s central financial institution digital forex (CBDC): “Extra international locations will take this type of answer and challenge [CBDCs]. All types of forex or fiat will change into digitized or programmable, in order that’s vital. At present, China’s third-party cost service may be very sturdy. Now we have a variety of the massive gamers available in the market. They usually [are] altering [to] a variety of new fashions, particularly programmable economics.”
See associated article: What is China’s new CBDC, and what is it not?
- Investments into decentralized finance (DeFi) initiatives in China: “DeFi is sort of a sizzling subject in China’s blockchain trade, however [there were] really just some international initiatives from China within the final 12 months. It is because in China, a number of traders nonetheless do a variety of [traditional] funding or simply use totally different DeFi initiatives or spend money on totally different initiatives. So [there are] extra traders than builders of DeFi in China.”
See associated article: How China is embracing blockchain, from DCEP to BSN
Predictions for 2021
- Why China’s cost providers will take time to undertake digital forex: “China’s third-party cost service won’t settle for digital forex or digital belongings nonetheless, as a result of China’s monetary regulation is sort of sturdy — they management nearly each sort of [financial] situation. And conventional monetary providers are additionally handy sufficient. We have already got digitized providers — now we have third-party funds, playing cards… It’s nonetheless a small investor group that focuses on [DeFi]. So that’s not like [the situation in] the US.”
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- Larger digitization of actual belongings: “We’ll see extra actual belongings coming to the blockchain world. So for my prediction, the standard enterprise world will [come over] to the blockchain world. However all these providers will probably be decentralized third-party providers.”
- Hope for extra credit-based DeFi to come back: “We simply issued the primary credit-based DeFi, [OScore]. Which means you possibly can lend cash based mostly in your credit score base. That’s the first case [of credit usage] in DeFi. Even when we use credit-based info and construct an on-chain, blockchain-based repute, this nonetheless will be decentralized. This nonetheless can hold management of your privateness. DeFi doesn’t [have to be] with none credit score base, with none repute, it’s simply that we don’t know one another. You continue to can management your privateness, your private knowledge, and also you get more cash, and extra environment friendly monetary providers, that’s vital. I hope subsequent 12 months we are going to see an increasing number of credit-based [DeFi].”
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